This is the prediction of the McIlvaine Company in its continually updated, NOx Control World Markets. Total capacity will grow by almost 385,000 MW during the five-year period. East Asia will account for 78% of the growth. Growth in coal-fired selective catalytic reduction (SCR) will be modest in NAFTA, but there will be a big SCR market for gas turbines. The SCR market for gas turbines, refineries and other applications will be growing in Central and South America. These numbers do not reflect replacements. In Western Europe, a number of SCR systems will be replaced due to age and the increasing stringency of regulations. China will be the largest purchaser of SCR systems over the next five years. New power plants will be fitted with SCR systems while existing power plants in polluted city areas will be retrofitted with this technology. The forecast does not include retrofitting the remaining 100,000 MW of U.S coal-fired power plants with SCR. The assumption is that they will rely on low NOx burners or SCR. Alternatively, these power plants may be retired. However, it may be necessary to revise this forecast in the next few months. The price of gas has risen. As a result, more coal is being burned. Power plants are beginning to rethink their coal-fired power plant retirement strategies.
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